DCF Valuation
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMMY) DCF Valuation — Is UPMMY overvalued?
The estimated DCF fair value of one UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMMY) share is $8.53. Compared to the current market price of $26.98, the stock is overvalued by 68.4%.
DCF fair value
$8.53
Market price
$26.98
Upside / downside
−68.4%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMMY) DCF valuation FAQ
What is the DCF fair value of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMMY)?
The discounted-cash-flow model estimates the intrinsic fair value of one UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMMY) share at $8.53, based on a 10-year projection of its cash flows converging to Damodaran industry averages.
Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMMY) overvalued or undervalued?
Against the current market price of $26.98, the DCF fair value of $8.53 implies UPMMY is overvalued by 68.4%.
How is the UPMMY DCF value calculated?
It is a 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate built from UPM-Kymmene Oyj's reported fundamentals, with terminal assumptions anchored to Damodaran NYU industry datasets. The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when UPM-Kymmene Oyj files a new quarterly or annual report.
How this UPMMY valuation is built
The model projects ten years of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's free cash flow to the firm and discounts each year at its own cost of capital. Rather than assuming today's growth and margins persist forever, a moat-scoring step — weighing UPM-Kymmene Oyj's ROIC-versus-WACC spread, gross-margin trend, and reinvestment efficiency — decides how many years the business holds its edge before its economics mean-revert toward the Damodaran NYU benchmarks for its industry.
WACC is rebuilt each year from an unlevered-then-relevered beta and the company's evolving capital structure; terminal value uses the Gordon growth model with a reinvestment rate tied to the return earned on new capital (goodwill stripped out to reflect operating efficiency). Every assumption — growth, margins, tax, leverage, convergence timing — is editable, and running the full interactive model adds a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo simulation and WACC-versus-terminal-growth sensitivity heatmaps.
The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when UPM-Kymmene Oyj files a new quarterly or annual report. For educational/informational purposes only — not investment advice. Last updated 2026-08-06.