DCF Valuation
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) DCF Valuation — Is MSDL overvalued?
The estimated DCF fair value of one Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) share is $4.35. Compared to the current market price of $15.08, the stock is overvalued by 71.1%.
DCF fair value
$4.35
Market price
$15.08
Upside / downside
−71.1%
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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) DCF valuation FAQ
What is the DCF fair value of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)?
The discounted-cash-flow model estimates the intrinsic fair value of one Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) share at $4.35, based on a 10-year projection of its cash flows converging to Damodaran industry averages.
Is Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) overvalued or undervalued?
Against the current market price of $15.08, the DCF fair value of $4.35 implies MSDL is overvalued by 71.1%.
How is the MSDL DCF value calculated?
It is a 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate built from Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's reported fundamentals, with terminal assumptions anchored to Damodaran NYU industry datasets. The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund files a new quarterly or annual report.
How this MSDL valuation is built
The model projects ten years of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's free cash flow to the firm and discounts each year at its own cost of capital. Rather than assuming today's growth and margins persist forever, a moat-scoring step — weighing Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's ROIC-versus-WACC spread, gross-margin trend, and reinvestment efficiency — decides how many years the business holds its edge before its economics mean-revert toward the Damodaran NYU benchmarks for its industry.
WACC is rebuilt each year from an unlevered-then-relevered beta and the company's evolving capital structure; terminal value uses the Gordon growth model with a reinvestment rate tied to the return earned on new capital (goodwill stripped out to reflect operating efficiency). Every assumption — growth, margins, tax, leverage, convergence timing — is editable, and running the full interactive model adds a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo simulation and WACC-versus-terminal-growth sensitivity heatmaps.
The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund files a new quarterly or annual report. For educational/informational purposes only — not investment advice. Last updated 2026-08-06.