DCF Valuation
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) DCF Valuation — Is HOG undervalued?
The estimated DCF fair value of one Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) share is $39.89. Compared to the current market price of $26.01, the stock is undervalued by 53.4%.
DCF fair value
$39.89
Market price
$26.01
Upside / downside
+53.4%
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Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) DCF valuation FAQ
What is the DCF fair value of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The discounted-cash-flow model estimates the intrinsic fair value of one Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) share at $39.89, based on a 10-year projection of its cash flows converging to Damodaran industry averages.
Is Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) overvalued or undervalued?
Against the current market price of $26.01, the DCF fair value of $39.89 implies HOG is undervalued by 53.4%.
How is the HOG DCF value calculated?
It is a 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate built from Harley-Davidson Inc's reported fundamentals, with terminal assumptions anchored to Damodaran NYU industry datasets. The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Harley-Davidson Inc files a new quarterly or annual report.
How this HOG valuation is built
The model projects ten years of Harley-Davidson Inc's free cash flow to the firm and discounts each year at its own cost of capital. Rather than assuming today's growth and margins persist forever, a moat-scoring step — weighing Harley-Davidson Inc's ROIC-versus-WACC spread, gross-margin trend, and reinvestment efficiency — decides how many years the business holds its edge before its economics mean-revert toward the Damodaran NYU benchmarks for its industry.
WACC is rebuilt each year from an unlevered-then-relevered beta and the company's evolving capital structure; terminal value uses the Gordon growth model with a reinvestment rate tied to the return earned on new capital (goodwill stripped out to reflect operating efficiency). Every assumption — growth, margins, tax, leverage, convergence timing — is editable, and running the full interactive model adds a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo simulation and WACC-versus-terminal-growth sensitivity heatmaps.
The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Harley-Davidson Inc files a new quarterly or annual report. For educational/informational purposes only — not investment advice. Last updated 2026-08-08.