DCF Valuation
Ampol Ltd ADR (CTXAY) DCF Valuation — Is CTXAY undervalued?
The estimated DCF fair value of one Ampol Ltd ADR (CTXAY) share is $289.43. Compared to the current market price of $56.21, the stock is undervalued by 414.9%.
DCF fair value
$289.43
Market price
$56.21
Upside / downside
+414.9%
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Ampol Ltd ADR (CTXAY) DCF valuation FAQ
What is the DCF fair value of Ampol Ltd ADR (CTXAY)?
The discounted-cash-flow model estimates the intrinsic fair value of one Ampol Ltd ADR (CTXAY) share at $289.43, based on a 10-year projection of its cash flows converging to Damodaran industry averages.
Is Ampol Ltd ADR (CTXAY) overvalued or undervalued?
Against the current market price of $56.21, the DCF fair value of $289.43 implies CTXAY is undervalued by 414.9%.
How is the CTXAY DCF value calculated?
It is a 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate built from Ampol Ltd ADR's reported fundamentals, with terminal assumptions anchored to Damodaran NYU industry datasets. The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Ampol Ltd ADR files a new quarterly or annual report.
How this CTXAY valuation is built
The model projects ten years of Ampol Ltd ADR's free cash flow to the firm and discounts each year at its own cost of capital. Rather than assuming today's growth and margins persist forever, a moat-scoring step — weighing Ampol Ltd ADR's ROIC-versus-WACC spread, gross-margin trend, and reinvestment efficiency — decides how many years the business holds its edge before its economics mean-revert toward the Damodaran NYU benchmarks for its industry.
WACC is rebuilt each year from an unlevered-then-relevered beta and the company's evolving capital structure; terminal value uses the Gordon growth model with a reinvestment rate tied to the return earned on new capital (goodwill stripped out to reflect operating efficiency). Every assumption — growth, margins, tax, leverage, convergence timing — is editable, and running the full interactive model adds a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo simulation and WACC-versus-terminal-growth sensitivity heatmaps.
The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Ampol Ltd ADR files a new quarterly or annual report. For educational/informational purposes only — not investment advice. Last updated 2026-08-06.