DCF Valuation
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) DCF Valuation — Is ADM undervalued?
The estimated DCF fair value of one Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) share is $85.10. Compared to the current market price of $77.58, the stock is undervalued by 9.7%.
DCF fair value
$85.10
Market price
$77.58
Upside / downside
+9.7%
Prefer the inverse question? See what growth rate the market is pricing into ADM →
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) DCF valuation FAQ
What is the DCF fair value of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)?
The discounted-cash-flow model estimates the intrinsic fair value of one Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) share at $85.10, based on a 10-year projection of its cash flows converging to Damodaran industry averages.
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) overvalued or undervalued?
Against the current market price of $77.58, the DCF fair value of $85.10 implies ADM is undervalued by 9.7%.
How is the ADM DCF value calculated?
It is a 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate built from Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's reported fundamentals, with terminal assumptions anchored to Damodaran NYU industry datasets. The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Archer-Daniels-Midland Company files a new quarterly or annual report.
How this ADM valuation is built
The model projects ten years of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's free cash flow to the firm and discounts each year at its own cost of capital. Rather than assuming today's growth and margins persist forever, a moat-scoring step — weighing Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's ROIC-versus-WACC spread, gross-margin trend, and reinvestment efficiency — decides how many years the business holds its edge before its economics mean-revert toward the Damodaran NYU benchmarks for its industry.
WACC is rebuilt each year from an unlevered-then-relevered beta and the company's evolving capital structure; terminal value uses the Gordon growth model with a reinvestment rate tied to the return earned on new capital (goodwill stripped out to reflect operating efficiency). Every assumption — growth, margins, tax, leverage, convergence timing — is editable, and running the full interactive model adds a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo simulation and WACC-versus-terminal-growth sensitivity heatmaps.
The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Archer-Daniels-Midland Company files a new quarterly or annual report. For educational/informational purposes only — not investment advice. Last updated 2026-08-06.